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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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