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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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