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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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