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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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