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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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