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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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