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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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