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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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