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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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