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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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