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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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