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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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