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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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