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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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