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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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