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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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