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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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