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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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