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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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