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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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