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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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