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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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