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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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