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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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