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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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