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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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