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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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