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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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