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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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