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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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