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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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