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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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