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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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