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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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