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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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