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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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