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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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