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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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