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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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