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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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