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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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