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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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