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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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