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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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