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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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