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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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