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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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