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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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