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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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