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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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