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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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